Prospects for the Formation a Multipolar World

"Научный аспект №7-2024" - Политология

УДК 327.3

Сой Ян Наунг – аспирант кафедры политологии Российского университета дружбы народов.

Аннотация: Межправительственные организации рассматриваются как ключевые игроки, поддерживающие идею многополярности путем укрепления региональной безопасности и экономического сотрудничества. Рост этих организаций отражает меняющуюся динамику глобальных дел, указывая на сдвиг в сторону более разнообразной и инклюзивной структуры глобального управления. Формирование многополярного мира открывает возможности для большей устойчивости и инклюзивности в международных отношениях.

Ключевые слова: БРИКС, G7, Однополярность, Биполярность, многополярный мир, межправительственные организации.

The notion of multipolarity is a concept that allocates similar amounts of power combined from more than two countries to shape global affairs and the idea of multipolar world has become increasingly popular in the landscape of geopolitics. As the evolution of international relations progresses, the emergence of multipolarity concept that evolves from unipolarity and/or bipolarity has become a prominent topic of discussion and analysis. The formation of a multipolar world expects opportunities for greater diversity, inclusivity, and resilience in global governance and it is a major focus for some countries, but how to manage the challenges and complexity of the transition from unipolar/bipolar to multipolar order is still an unresolved issue. This essay proposes that the proliferation of intergovernmental organizations is the most effective and visible way to form multipolar world.

The term “Polarity” in international relationship study is the form of distribution power in various ways to shape the global politics. There are generally three types of polarity according to the condition where how many great power dominants the international system; one great power means unipolarity, two great powers mean bipolarity, and more than two great powers are known as multipolarity [1].

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, bipolar system ended with the cold war. In this regard the United States became the only sole superpower and America's unipolar system has ruled the world order in the 1990s. The contemporary world order is debatable to be characterized because “does the United States, along with its western alliance such as Groups of Seven Nations (G7) and European Union (EU) still maintain hegemonic Unipolarity?”, or “does the rise of U.S-China rivalry regarding with the growing power of China form Bipolarity?” or, “does the emerging of new countries with potential superpower leads Multipolar world?”. In the contemporary world, there is no visible clear form of global order, but we can look at some important key actors to understand global order and international governance.

The Groups of Seven Nations (G7) is an intergovernmental organization based on a non-treaty agreement that shares values of liberal democracies and established in the 1970s. The G7 countries, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States are consistently listed as the top economies in the world. The EU has participated in the G7 since the 1980s, and the U.S-led G7, including the EU, owns more than 60 percent of the current global net worth and about 43 percent share of global GDP in 2023 [2;3].

The significant emergence of China as an economic powerhouse, the resurgence of Russia as a regional geopolitical player in Eurasian region, and India and Brazil as the growing assertiveness of regional actors, and their formation of an organization namely BRIC in 2006, after entering South Africa, a key actor of African World in 2010 and becoming BRICS, reflects initially the changing power in international relations [4]. The alliance aims to focus on the issues concerning with the Global South countries dealing with the international security, stability, economies, and international development. The rise of the intergovernmental organizations in 21st century can be considered as an idea to adjust American unipolar power in international affairs.

In 2015, BRICS countries has established New Development Bank (formerly named BRICS Development Bank) alongside BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, aimed to create a global financial institution to cooperate with the Western-dominated international financial institutions such as International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organisation and World Bank. This can be regarded as a remarkable achievement of institutional cooperation. The BRICS has also proposed creating an alternative payment system as backup and redundancy in case of disruptions in the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. In addition, BRICS countries have pledged to study a potential common currency or similar new currency to reduce transition costs in international trade.

The growth of India has been surprisingly linked to the rise of BRICS. India was not on the list of the world's top 10 economies until 2010, but today India's fast-growing economy is gaining enormous attention with the fifth largest economy in the world. And, around 7 percent of India's GDP growth rate is the highest number in the list of the top 10 economies and the most populous country in the world. In this regard, high GDP growth rate, second largest arable area (after the United States) and large labour force of India will boost its ranking on the list of global economies. Meanwhile, BRICS gives Russia an opportunity to avoid international isolation because of members who want to counter U.S-led western influence. The war in Ukraine and the U.S-led sanctions imposed on Russia has even promoted the cooperation within BRICS countries.

With the purpose of the expansion to establish a multipolar world order that would bring the issues dealing with global south countries to the attention of the global agenda [5], Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates become new members of BRICS on 1st January 2024. Besides the new Argentine government has rejected membership because of Chinese communism, and while Saudi Arabia continues to consider accepting membership, there are currently nine full members, and 25 leading countries from different regions are presently on the waitlist to join BRICS [6]. The India's rapid growing economy and BRICS’s stance on Russia in Ukrainian conflict might be seen as an added incentive to join the group.

While at the present, albeit BRICS with around 26 percent share is still behind the G7 with 43 percent share in term of global GDP, BRICS will have overtaken the G7 according to the rise GDP growth rate of members in coming years. However, membership expansion will immediately overwhelm the G7. But BRICS needs to focus on the sustainable group relations rather than expanding new membership, with the experience of Argentina. In addition, three G7 members and two BRICS members share all five veto powers at the United Nations, and it makes BRICS to be a key role in competition against the U.S-led strong unipolar world in the international politics.

This essay does not focus on who will prevail in current or future world order as political dynamic is endless. Since Multipolarity has given the idea of more than two countries participating in world order, this essay emphasizes how countries seek to participate and whether they have enough capabilities to compete with current world leaders. In this regard, BRICS may be deduced as a qualified entity for inclusion standards to participate in the current competition led by U.S. unipolarity or U.S.-Chinese bipolarity and meets the idea of formation multipolar world.

Although fundamental differences and political tensions among its members hinder its ambitions and the countries remain to address so many issues and challenges such as poverty, corruption, illiteracy, pollution, and unemployment, BRICS is a prime example of the effort to implement multipolarity, as the group relations are trying to be carried out based on non-interference, equality, and mutual benefits. Engaging new participants in global politics individually might be risky, as the multipolarity is less stable than unipolarity or bipolarity, but as an organization, BRICS-initiated new world order offers much better prospects for the formation a multipolar world.

In addition, the rise of some regional intergovernmental organizations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the African Union (AU), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) also supports the idea of multipolarity. These organizations have already gained prominence as key players in regional security and economic cooperation as regional dynamics will also play an increasingly important role in shaping global affairs by their own effective influence within their respective regions. The global world order has already been changing and new world order will have been significantly seen in the coming years.

Literature

  1. Keersmaeker, G. (2017). Polarity, Balance of Power and International Relations Theory: Post-Cold War and the 19th Century Compared.
  2. International Monetary Fund. (2024). Retrieved from International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/en/Home
  3. Shear, Michael D. (11 June 2021)."G7 News: A Return to Face-to-Face Diplomacy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 24 November 2021. Retrieved 12 June 2021.
  4. Oliver Stuenkel (2020). The BRICS and the Future of Global Order (2 ed.). Lexington Books. p. 1. ISBN 978-0739193211
  5. Ismail, S. (2023). "Saudi Arabia, Iran among 6 nations invited to join BRICS".
  6. Geoff, M. M. (2024, February 27). Twenty-five countries currently waiting to join BRICS — South African Envoy. (TASS, Interviewer) TASS.
Автор: Сой Ян Наунг