УДК 327

Analysis and research on Russia's diplomatic solution to domestic supply chain problems during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Чжан Тайчан – студент бакалавриата факультета Мировой политики Московского государственного университета им. М.В. Ломоносова

Линь Сичжэнь – студентка бакалавриата факультета Гуманитарных и социальных наук Ноттингемского университета (г. Нинбо, Китай)

Се Сяочэнь – студент бакалавриата факультета Мировой политики Московского государственного университета им. М.В. Ломоносова

Abstract: With the new wave of technology updates in the world and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the supply chain has a huge impact: the supply chains of various countries need to adapt to the changing international environment and adapt to the rapid development of technology. Due to the sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union, Russian banks are excluded from the payment system of the SWIFT, and the financial chain between Russia and Western countries is being cut off, which has caused a major impact on Russia's economic development layout. At present, the domestic society of most countries has entered the post-modern society, and various manifestations of anti-globalization are not uncommon. However, it is not difficult to see through various economic and trade issues in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that the wave of globalization has not disappeared. Countries around the world are still highly dependent on each other, which also puts forward higher requirements for the supply chain. It is necessary to make the supply chain more stable and reliable at the level of diplomacy and international cooperation. This article will take Russia during the Russo-Ukrainian War as an example, and analyze and study how Russia responds to the difficulties and crises of supply chain rupture from the perspective of diplomacy and international cooperation.

Keywords: Russia, economic cooperation and conflict, Russian-Ukrainian conflict, supply chain.

Mutual trade and investment in the EAEU countries continues to grow. The development of trade and economic relations between the EAEU and other countries received an important boost. Within the framework of the EAEU, the member states of the Union have taken swift joint measures to enhance the stability of their economies in the face of worsening global economic problems and Western sanctions against Russia. The members of the Union have agreed on more than 50 counter-supply chain crisis solutions aimed at stabilising commodity, currency and financial markets, national pillar industries and preventing shortages of food, medicines and medical equipment. Eight international agreements have been concluded on issues related to the functioning and development of the Union and the resolution of tasks facing it, including agreements with third countries. Through the EEC, memorandums of understanding/cooperation were signed with the COMESA, the Secretariat of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICA) and the United Arab Emirates, with Emirates Airline (UAE) taking the lead on transport. 2022 saw imports from EAEU countries grow by more than 40%, while the Union's share of Russia's share of imports increases from 8% in 2021 to 13% in 2022. This difference can be explained by a shift from imports from unfriendly countries to imports from the EAEU countries.

Thanks to timely collective measures within the CIS framework, Russia has paid particular attention to improving the economic stability of its member states: a working group was set up to monitor the economic situation in the CIS, a series of measures were approved to stimulate mutual trade, harmonise norms and standards in the CIS and the Eurasian Economic Union, and remove barriers to trade.

During the Russian-Uzbek conflict, Russian-Azerbaijani relations were on the rise and the Heads of State of both countries signed a Declaration on Alliance Cooperation. 17 per cent growth in Russian-Azerbaijani trade in 2022 (to $3 billion). For the development of the western branch of the North-South international transport corridor and the establishment of a gas hub in Turkey.

The joint declaration of the Armenian and Russian leaders confirmed the nature of the special alliance and the strategic direction of cooperation between Russia and Armenia. Trade turnover exceeded US$4 billion for the first time. Cumulative Russian investment in the Armenian economy reached US$2.1 billion (40% of total foreign investment).

Despite the lack of diplomatic relations between Russia and Georgia, the official pragmatic line of Tbilisi boosted bilateral economic relations. Trade grew by more than half to exceed US$2.4 billion.

Russia's alliance and strategic partnership with Central Asian countries is strengthened. The first Russia-Central Asia Summit (October 2022) and the fifth Russia-Central Asia Foreign Ministers' Meeting (May 2022) took place. 

A landmark event in Russian-Kazakh relations was the visit of President Tokaev to Russia, confirming the desire of the two countries to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation. The 18th Russia-Kazakhstan Forum on Regional Cooperation concluded successfully. Trade turnover reached a record high of over US$20 billion.

Russian-Turkmenistan relations reached the level of a deep strategic partnership, as recorded in the joint statement of the two heads of state following President Berdymukhamedov's (June 2022) first official visit to Russia. Russia and Turkmenistan have signed more than 30 documents on inter-governmental and interdepartmental cooperation in various fields.

Russia's contacts with Kyrgyzstan are developing, including at the highest level. An economic cooperation programme for 2022-2026 was signed, the ninth inter-regional conference and the first Russian-Kyrgyz Investment Forum were held.

Russia and Uzbekistan signed a declaration on comprehensive strategic partnership and 11 documents on inter-governmental and interdepartmental cooperation in various fields. The business communities of the two countries concluded investment agreements worth US$4.6 billion.

Russia is unswervingly committed to solving the strategic task of building Eurasia into a single continental space of peace, stability, mutual trust, development and prosperity.

Russia will form a broad outline of integration - the Greater Eurasian Partnership, comprehensively strengthen the economic and transportation connectivity of the Eurasian continent, and create favorable conditions for the potential combination of countries and regional organizations in the future.

The branch structure of Russia-China interaction includes the United Nations and its Security Council, the SCO, the BRICS, the G20, and the regional structure led by ASEAN. Continue to carry out systematic work on the connection between the EAEU and the “Belt and Road” initiative. Bilateral trade rose by almost a third (to $190 billion), with a sharp increase in the share settled in national currencies. Key projects and cooperation projects in investment, energy, industry, transportation and other fields were implemented smoothly.

The visit of Russian President V. Putin (February 2022) to Beijing was followed by the adoption of one of the key bilateral documents, the Joint Declaration on a New Era of International Relations and Sustainable Global Development. Vladimir Putin met with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the SCO summit (Samarkand, September) to discuss practical cooperation in the international arena. In the context of geopolitical turmoil, Russia and China are strengthening their cooperation in international affairs and jointly advocating a more just and sustainable multipolar world order. Moscow's "ties" with Beijing have also made it possible to promote common approaches to solving pressing international problems in an effective and timely manner. Russia and China have strengthened their cooperation in economic trade and supply chains, and in March 2023, on the occasion of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia, the two sides issued a joint statement on the development of priority directions for Russian-Chinese economic cooperation up to 2030, in which it was mentioned that both sides should vigorously develop an interconnected logistics system. To improve the ease of two-way transportation of people and goods between the two nations via rail, road, air, river, and sea; to give priority to eliminating bottlenecks; to improve the construction of China's and Russia's border infrastructure, particularly the key ports, in a step-by-step and phased manner; and to improve the effectiveness of customs clearance and inspection. In order to encourage smooth trade flows, Russian Prime Minister Mishustin also called for, in his visit to Shanghai, first, reforming rules and regulations and optimizing the logistics supply chain. In order to expand commercial prospects for companies on both sides and reinforce the complementary nature of the two economies, trade facilitation should be further enhanced. In order to decrease trade costs and time, increase trade efficiency, and further expand Sino-Russian trade, he also recommended creating unique procedures for both nations' businesses and optimizing the logistics supply chain. This will support the comprehensive growth of Sino-Russian trade cooperation even more.

The positive interaction at all levels, including the SCO and BRICS platforms, has contributed to the strengthening of Russian-Indian relations. Cooperation is gradually developing in the most important areas, primarily in the field of energy and military technology. The parties have reached practical agreements on the establishment of self-sufficient financial and logistical chains. Economic measures are being implemented to ensure a multiplicative increase in bilateral trade.

Agreements reached as a result of talks between V. Putin and Mongolian Prime Minister Erden and other bilateral contacts have helped to boost major joint projects, including the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to China via Mongolian territory, the modernisation of the Ulaanbaatar III thermal power plant, the supply of energy carriers, etc. The common desire to establish comprehensive cooperation was confirmed during the meeting the Heads of Russia, China and Mongolia.

Russia has strengthened its multifaceted and mutually beneficial cooperation with friendly Islamic civilisation countries, which are increasingly becoming welcome and reliable partners in ensuring security, stability and solving economic problems.

The development of comprehensive cooperation between Russia and Iran has been active. Close contacts are maintained between the countries through the foreign policy and defense sectors and the Security Council. The exchange of delegations between the sectors is accelerating, inter-parliamentary and interregional contacts are maintained. Implementation of projects in the energy and transport sectors, including within the framework of the development of the North-South International Trade Center, where joint financing of the two countries is envisaged. In addition, construction of the 170-kilometer Rasht-Astara railroad, which will increase the economic efficiency of the trans-Caspian route.

Russia's political, trade, economic, investment, human and humanistic cooperation with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf is gaining new momentum. Interaction with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia is characterised by increasing activity. The results of Russia's cooperation with its partners within the OPEC+ framework deserve a positive assessment.

Russia and Turkey actively cooperated in resolving a number of regional crises, during the conflict in Ukraine. Turkey's pragmatic stance contributed to a comprehensive agreement within the framework of the Black Sea Initiative, the organisation of the activities of the Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul. Cooperation continues in the implementation of strategic bilateral projects in the gas and nuclear fields, including the establishment of a regional gas centre in Turkey.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought profound lessons to countries all over the world. If one mode of transport fails completely - in this case the sea route across the Black Sea until a grain export agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine - it could even lead to starvation on another continent, thus showing that when geopolitical Alternative routes are extremely important when conflicts arise between states with such important roles. Of course, sea freight itself is irreplaceable due to its cargo capacity. Therefore, Russia will focus on the north-south project, Azov-Black Sea Basin and Caspian Sea Basin port projects. In addition, Russia has increased domestic grain and fertilizer exports, mainly to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. It also meets the diversification of imports of products that meet the needs of Russia's domestic economy and market.

The Russian government is paying particular attention to the expansion of the free trade regime, the digital transformation of the chemical industry and the issue of scientific, technological, technical and innovative cooperation. Russia is committed to expanding exports of energy resources to pragmatic countries, with a focus on the fast-growing Asian market. The constructive nature of Russia's interaction with OPEC+ member countries ensures that agreements are reached, thus avoiding a decline in oil trade profits and maintaining the balance of the global oil market.

In the current unstable international situation, it is extremely important for Russia to restore and develop relations in the context of good neighbourliness, mutual benefit and without violating previously reached agreements. Despite pressure from the West, Russia's partner countries have not imposed sanctions on Russia, in particular China, India, Turkey, South Africa, Belarus and many other countries. International cooperation within the framework of the EAEU, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the BRICS alliance and others is progressing at a brisk pace, aiming to establish a positive agenda for multilateral cooperation.It is thus clear that in the current increasingly tense international situation in industries where the country has an edge and wants to remain ahead and competitive in these times, governments must be flexible enough and must adapt to the latest technological advances, new processes and strategies in order to succeed.

Список литературы

1. Sanctions against Russia will worsen its already poor economic prospects Sanctions, coming on top of longstanding domestic shortcomings, are gradually weakening Russia. Publishing date: 02 May 2023. Authors Elina Ribakova.